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A Study on the Price Fluctuation and Forecasting of Aquacultural Flatfish in Korea (양식 넙치의 가격변동 및 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ock, Young-Soo;Kim, Sang-Tae;Ko, Bong-Hyun
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.41-62
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    • 2007
  • The Fish aquacultural Industry has been developed rapidly since 1990s in Korea. The total production of fish aquaculture was 5,000ton in the beginning of 1990s, but it was an excess of 80,000ton in 2005. In the beginning of 1990s, the percentage of flatfish yield was 80% of the fish aquaculture in the respect of production. And it has been maintained 50% level in 2005. In this point of view, flatfish aquaculture played the role of leader in the development of fish aquaculture. Rapid increasing of production was not only caused to decreasing in price basically, but also it threatened the management of producer into insecure price for aquacultural flatfish. Therefore, it needs the policy for stabilizing in price, but it is difficult to choose the method because the basic study was not accomplished plentifully. This study analyzed about price structure of aquacultural flatfish. A period of analysis was from January 2000 to December 2005, and a data was used monthly data for price. The principal result of this study is substantially as follows. 1) The price of producing and consuming district is closely connected. 2) A gap between producing district price and consuming district price is decreasing recently, It seems to be correlated with outlook business of aquacultural flatfish. 3) Trend line of the price was declining until 2002, but it turned up after that. The other side, circulated fluctuation was being showed typically. 4) The circle of circulated fluctuation was growing longer, so it seems that the producer was doing a sensible productive activity to cope with changing price. As a result, government's policy needs to be turned into price policy from policy of increased production for aquacultural flatfish. It seems that the best policy is price stabilization polices. And also, government needs to invest in outlook business for aquaculture constantly.

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The Effect of External Shocks on Food Price in Indonesia: A VECM Analysis

  • Nurvitasari, Ari;Nasrudin, Nasrudin
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.8 no.7
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    • pp.7-12
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - This research examines the short-run and long-run effect of external shocks (oil price and exchange rate) on domestic food price in Indonesia. Research design, data, and methodology - Three variables are used in this research. The variables are food price index, Rupiah's exchange rate of Indonesia, and crude oil price from 1998 until 2015 using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results - The increasing of oil price and the depreciation of Rupiah's rate push the domestic food price in long-run, but do not impact significantly in short- term. The response of food price to oil prices shock and exchange rate shock are positive and persistent throughout the entire sample period. The exchange rate and oil price shocks have a small proportion explaining for the fluctuations of food price index but increasing over time. Conclusions - The policymaker should concern on solving the problem of oil price increase and depreciation of exchange rate on Indonesia's food price as they are important factors that can affect the price stability. The government should not rely on food imports because the price is strongly influenced by the movements in the exchange rate.

Implementing a Virtual Shopping Mall for the Cheapest Price using MOM(Message-Oriented Middleware) based on XML (XML 기반의 MOM(Message-Oriented Middleware)을 이용한 최저 가격 보장을 위한 가상 쇼핑몰 구현)

  • 임종선;주경수
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2002
  • There are a lot of shopping malls in Internet and most of consumers want to buy good goods in cheap price through the shopping malls. To support them, many sites for price comparison are constructed. But man or woman search many shopping malls and insert their price informations into database that the price comparison sites own. To overcome this disadvantage, virtual shopping malls are builded. These virtual shopping malls are connected and cooperated a lot of affiliated existing shopping malls for the cheapest price information. But, these virtual shopping mall are connected to those existing shopping malls in synchronous. So If they are connected to many existing shopping malls, we have to wait long time because of searching for many existing shopping malls. In this paper, we designed and implemented a virtual shopping mall that connect to many existing shopping malls in asynchronous. For a asynchronous communication between this virtual shopping mall and many existing shopping malls, we used JMS (Java Message Service) that is a standard Java API for MOM (Message-Oriented Middleware).

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Expectation-Based Model Explaining Boom and Bust Cycles in Housing Markets (주택유통시장에서 가격거품은 왜 발생하는가?: 소비자의 기대에 기초한 가격 변동주기 모형)

  • Won, Jee-Sung
    • The Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - Before the year 2000, the housing prices in Korea were increasing every decade. After 2000, for the first time, Korea experienced a decrease in housing prices, and the repetitive cycle of price fluctuation started. Such a "boom and bust cycle" is a worldwide phenomenon. The current study proposes a mathematical model to explain price fluctuation cycles based on the theory of consumer psychology. Specifically, the model incorporates the effects of buyer expectations of future prices on actual price changes. Based on the model, this study investigates various independent variables affecting the amplitude of price fluctuations in housing markets. Research design, data, and methodology - The study provides theoretical analyses based on a mathematical model. The proposed model uses the following assumptions of the pricing mechanism in housing markets. First, the price of a house at a certain time is affected not only by its current price but also by its expected future price. Second, house investors or buyers cannot predict the exact future price but make a subjective prediction based on observed price changes up to the present. Third, the price is determined by demand changes made in previous time periods. The current study tries to explain the boom-bust cycle in housing markets with a mathematical model and several numerical examples. The model illustrates the effects of consumer price elasticity, consumer sensitivity to price changes, and the sensitivity of prices to demand changes on price fluctuation. Results - The analytical results imply that even without external effects, the boom-bust cycle can occur endogenously due to buyer psychological factors. The model supports the expectation of future price direction as the most important variable causing price fluctuation in housing market. Consumer tendency for making choices based on both the current and expected future price causes repetitive boom-bust cycles in housing markets. Such consumers who respond more sensitively to price changes are shown to make the market more volatile. Consumer price elasticity is shown to be irrelevant to price fluctuations. Conclusions - The mechanism of price fluctuation in the proposed model can be summarized as follows. If a certain external shock causes an initial price increase, consumers perceive it as an ongoing increasing price trend. If the demand increases due to the higher expected price, the price goes up further. However, too high a price cannot be sustained for long, thus the increasing price trend ceases at some point. Once the market loses the momentum of a price increase, the price starts to drop. A price decrease signals a further decrease in a future price, thus the demand decreases further. When the price is perceived as low enough, the direction of the price change is reversed again. Policy makers should be cognizant that the current increase in housing prices due to increased liquidity can pose a serious threat of a sudden price decrease in housing markets.

Analysis about Effect for Stock Price of Korea Companies through volatility of price of USA and Korea (미국과 한국의 가격변수 변화에 따른 한국기업 주가에 대한 영향분석)

  • 김종권
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • pp.321-339
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    • 2002
  • The result of variance decomposition through yield of Treasury of 30 year maturity of USA, S&P 500 index, stock price of KEPCO has 76.12% of impulse of KEPCO stock price at short-term horizon, but they have 51.40% at long-term horizon. After one year, they occupy 13.65%, and 33.25%. So their effects are increased. By the way, S&P 500 index and yield of Treasury of 30 year maturity of USA have relatively more effect for forecast of stock price oi KEPCO at short-term & long-term. The yield of Treasury of 30 year maturity of USA more than S&P 500 index have more effect for stock price of KEPCO. It is why. That foreign investors through fall of stock price of USA invest for emerging market is less than movement for emerging market of hedge funds through effect of fall of yield of Treasury of 30 year maturity of USA, according to relative effects for stock price of Korea companies. The result of variance decomposition through won/dollar foreign exchange rate, yield of corporate bond of 3 year maturity, Korea Stock Price index(KOSPI), stock price of KEPCO has 81.33% of impulse of KEPCO stock price at short-term horizon, but they have 41.73% at long-term horizon. After one year, they occupy 23.57% and 34.70%. So their effects are increased. By the way, KOSPI and won/dollar foreign exchange rate have relatively more effect for forecast of stock price of KEPCO at short-term & long-term. The won/dollar foreign exchange rate more than KOSPI have more effect for stock price of KEPCO. It is why. The recovery of economic condition through improvement of company revenue causes of rising of KOSPI. But, if persistence of low interest rate continues, fall of won/dollar foreign exchange rate will be more aggravated. And it will give positive effect for stock price of KEPCO. This gives more positive effect at two main reason. Firstly, through fall of won/dollar foreign exchange rate and rising of credit rating of Korea will be followed. Therefore, foreign investors will invest more funds to Korea. Secondly, inflow of foreign investment funds through profit of won/dollar foreign exchange rate and stock investment will be occurred. If appreciation of won against dollar is forecasted, foreign investors will buy won. Through this won, investors will do investment. Won/dollar foreign exchange rate is affected through external factors of yen/dollar foreign exchange rate, etc. Therefore, the exclusion of instable factors for foreign investors through rising of credit rating of Korea is necessary things.

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Suggestions for Redirection of Korean Price Policy for Reimbursement Drug in Health Insurance (선진국의 약가정책 고찰을 통한 건강보험 약가제도의 개선방안)

  • Lee, Kyu-Sik;Jeong, Hyoung-Sun
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2003
  • General drug prices involve three stages: shipment stage, wholesaler stage and retail stage. Policies on drug price differ from country to country. Shipment stage prices are tightly regulated in countries like France and Netherlands. They are free in only a minority of advanced countries, even if these include some major players such as the US, Germany and, in a very limited sense, Japan. The situation in the UK is very complex with a semi-free system, where drug companies are free to set their own prices but cannot exceed a predetermined profit ceiling. Mark-up at both wholesaler and retail stages is formally admitted in most countries observed. Apart from the general drug prices, reimbursement price of insured drugs has been major policy concerns. Most countries reviewed in this study has exerted some control over reimbursement prices, but differ both in the way how and in the extent to which prices are admitted or fixed. Price fixing has been used in France and Japan. Some countries have transformed their system over time, particularly to move to reference pricing in the last decade. This mechanism has empowered the customer, and improved price competition on the market. Referring to the drug price policies in the advanced countries, this study makes some suggestions for the redirection of Korean price policy for reimbursement drug in health insurance as follows: to match appropriate policy tools to each policy goal; to maximize market mechanism through effective reimbursement price fixing which admits mark-ups in wholesaler and retail prices; to introduce reference pricing system in order to redirect patient's demand with a financial incentive to choose the best-priced drugs and to save the finance of health insurance; and to strengthen surveillance and monitoring mechanism in the drug market.

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Consumer's Perception of Clothing Price (Part I) - Testing the Validity of Dimensions of Clothing Price - (의복구매시 소비자가 지각하는 가격 (제1보) -의복가격 차원의 타당성 검증-)

  • 진병호
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.417-427
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    • 1998
  • Price, one of the marketing 4p's, is a key decision variable affecting market share and the profitability of individual products. For consumers, since price is almost always known to and can be compared, it is one of the most important criteria when they make a purchase decision making. With the consumers' increasing consciousness for price due to economic recession, and the saturation of domestic apparel market, it is expected that the effect of price on consumers' decision making would be greater than ever. This study, the first in two part series, focuses on testing the validity of dimensions of clothing price using Lichtenstein et. at. (1993)'s suggestion. In addition, the effect of demographic variables on the perception of each price dimension was investigated. The subjects were 264 college students living in Seoul, Korea. The data were collected by self -administered questionnaires and analyzed by t-test, ANOVA, regression analysis and Lisrel confirmatory factor analysis. The result supported Lichtenstein et. al. (1993)'s suggestion. That is, consumers' perception of clothing price is not mini-dimensional, but has six dimensions: sale proneness, price mavenism, value consciousness, price consciousness, price -quality schema and prestige sensitivity. Demographic variables partially effect on the consumers' perception of each clothing price dimension. The level of monthly pocket money, however, has influence on all price dimensions. Based on these results, marketing implications for apparel manufacturers were suggested.

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Oil Price Fluctuations and Stock Market Movements: An Application in Oman

  • Echchabi, Abdelghani;Azouzi, Dhekra
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics, and Business
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.19-23
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    • 2017
  • It is undisputable that crude oil and its price fluctuations are major components that affect most of the countries' economies. Recent studies have demonstrated that beside the impact that crude oil price fluctuations have on common macroeconomic indicators like gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rates, exchange rates, unemployment rate, etc., it also has a strong influence on stock markets and their performance. This relationship has been examined in a number of settings, but it is yet to be unraveled in the Omani context. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to examine the possible effect of the oil price fluctuations on stock price movements. The study applies Toda and Yamamoto's (1995) Granger non-causality test on the daily Oman stock index (Muscat Securities Market Index) and oil prices between the period of 2 January 2003 and 13 March 2016. The results indicated that the oil price fluctuations have a significant impact on stock index movements. However, the stock price movements do not have a significant impact on oil prices. These findings have significant implications not only for the Omani economy but also for the economy of similar countries, particularly in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The latter should carefully consider their policies and strategies regarding crude oil production and the generated income allocation as it might potentially affect the financial markets performance in these countries.

A Study on the Construction of Fisheries Producer Price Index (수산물 생산자물가지수 산정방식에 관한 고찰;-연근해 어획물을 중심으로-)

  • 이광진
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.67-90
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    • 1996
  • As an important factor of capitalism economics, price of commodities represents a certain country's economic index. For having correct price policy, there should be an appropriate mechanism to make and use systematic statistical data on price. Price statistics are made by indexes and price indexes are categorized into producer price index(PPI) and consumer price index(CPI). The Bank of Korea is publishing producer price index every year, but the producer price index contains some problems. These include as follows : (a) the impractical selection of fisheries products sample (b) uncorrect measure of aquatic products weights (c) investigating sample places. This study try to substitute producer price index of aquatic products and change construction of fisheries producer price index with experimental research on representative fisheries, weight of each fisheries, and suitability of investigating sample places. It is possible to improve practical fisheries producer price index with the results of this research. The findings are as follow. (a) It will be helpful for the government to make the fisheries price policy. (b) It can be used to understand trends of accurate price and price increase of aquatic products, and it's possible to compare with it other industrial indexes including the mining, agricultural, and manufacturing industry and understand relative price movement. (c) When free sales systems of fisheries products as expected, it will be helpful to analyze price movement of producing fisheries cooperatives, producing fisheries market and consuming fisheries market, analysis of market, and formation and consideration of budget. (d) It can be an important index to determine labor wage.

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Multiple Replenishment Contract with Purchase Price Discount (구매비용할인을 고려한 다회보충계약)

  • Jung, Bong-Ryong;Kim, Jong-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.345-351
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    • 2001
  • We are concerned with a multiple replenishment contract with a purchase price discount in a supply chain. The chain is composed of one supplier, one buyer and consumers for a product. The replenishment contract is based upon the well-known (s, Q) policy but allows contracting several firmed orders at a time with a price discount. Due to a larger forecast error of the future demand, the buyer should keep a higher level of safety stock to provide the same level of service of the usual (s, Q) policy but can reduce his purchase cost by placing larger quantity. Thus there exists a trade-off between the price discount and inventory holding cost. We present a model for the contract and an algorithm to find the optimum number of the firmed orders. Computer experiments show that the algorithm finds the global optimum solution very fast.

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