• Title, Summary, Keyword: renewal risk model

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ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE DISCOUNTED PROPER DEFICIT IN THE DISCRETE TIME DELAYED RENEWAL MODEL

  • Bao, Zhen-Hua;Wang, Jing
    • Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.325-334
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    • 2011
  • In this paper we consider the discrete time delayed renewal risk model. We investigate what will happen when the distribution function of the discounted proper deficit is asymptotic in the initial surplus. In doing this we establish several lemmas regarding some related ruin quantities in the discrete time delayed renewal risk model, which are of significance on their own right.

A NOTE ON THE SEVERITY OF RUIN IN THE RENEWAL MODEL WITH CLAIMS OF DOMINATED VARIATION

  • Tang, Qihe
    • Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.663-669
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    • 2003
  • This paper investigates the tail asymptotic behavior of the severity of ruin (the deficit at ruin) in the renewal model. Under the assumption that the tail probability of the claimsize is dominatedly varying, a uniform asymptotic formula for the tail probability of the deficit at ruin is obtained.

A Compound Poisson Risk Model with a Two-Step Premium Rule

  • Song, Mi Jung;Lee, Jiyeon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.377-385
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    • 2013
  • We consider a compound Poisson risk model in which the premium rate changes when the surplus exceeds a threshold. The explicit form of the ruin probability for the risk model is obtained by deriving and using the overflow probability of the workload process in the corresponding M/G/1 queueing model.

ON THE PROBABILITY OF RUIN IN A CONTINUOUS RISK MODEL WITH DELAYED CLAIMS

  • Zou, Wei;Xie, Jie-Hua
    • Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.111-125
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we consider a continuous time risk model involving two types of dependent claims, namely main claims and by-claims. The by-claim is induced by the main claim and the occurrence of by-claim may be delayed depending on associated main claim amount. Using Rouch$\acute{e}$'s theorem, we first derive the closed-form solution for the Laplace transform of the survival probability in the dependent risk model from an integro-differential equations system. Then, using the Laplace transform, we derive a defective renewal equation satisfied by the survival probability. For the exponential claim sizes, we present the explicit formula for the survival probability. We also illustrate the influence of the model parameters in the dependent risk model on the survival probability by numerical examples.

PRECISE LARGE DEVIATIONS FOR AGGREGATE LOSS PROCESS IN A MULTI-RISK MODEL

  • Tang, Fengqin;Bai, Jianming
    • Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.447-467
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we consider a multi-risk model based on the policy entrance process with n independent policies. For each policy, the entrance process of the customer is a non-homogeneous Poisson process, and the claim process is a renewal process. The loss process of the single-risk model is a random sum of stochastic processes, and the actual individual claim sizes are described as extended upper negatively dependent (EUND) structure with heavy tails. We derive precise large deviations for the loss process of the multi-risk model after giving the precise large deviations of the single-risk model. Our results extend and improve the existing results in significant ways.

Study on Fatality Risk of Senior Driver with Aging Classification (초기·중기·후기 고령운전자의 사망자 발생위험도 분석과 시사점)

  • Choi, Jaesung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.148-161
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    • 2018
  • A traffic fatality by young people marked average annual decrease of 4.5% since 2011. Meanwhile, a traffic fatality by senior over 65 years old marked average annual increase of 7.9% for the last five years which means that the annual increase of traffic fatality by senior will be a serious problem. This study started questioning that senior drivers over 65 years old did not retain the same causal factor of fatal traffic accidents and thus extensively analyzed a risk of it by age group quantitatively, dividing the senior driver group into the early, middle and latter stages. Depending on the aging level, the risk of traffic fatality showed a wide difference in seven different types of traffic accidents generally, and happened to increase with latter and middle parts of the senior driver more than the early part. Therefore, this study proposes four policy suggestions: 1) The senior driver need to be offered customized driving educations and the improvement of road environment is also recommended. 2) Political assistance is needed to support and guide a safety related technology installation for the new or existing car. 3) Renewal of driving license and an aptitude test(physical examination, cognitive test) for drivers over 75 years old should take in a less than 3 years and an additional road test is needed as occasion demands. 4) Like the United States and Europe, development and extension of customized treatment guidebook for medical teams who examine senior drivers is needed and establishment of education and administration system that a supervisor of driving license renewal can impose safety restriction and American anonymity reporting system is considered to institutionalize in the medium to longer term.

A Study on the Evaluation Model of Disaster Risks for Earthquake : Centering on the Cases of Cheongju City (지진에 대한 재해위험도 평가 모형에 관한 연구 - 청주시 사례 중심으로 -)

  • Jeong, Eui-Dam;Shin, Chang-Ho;Hwang, Hee-Yun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2010
  • Relatively high density of population and buildings exists in urban area mainly because of broad job opportunities and conveniences available. In other words, if happened, there might be high possibility of disaster which can not be easily recovered. The purpose of this study is to show evaluation approach of the risk degree resulted from the disaster, which considers the attributes of urban area. Cheongju-city in Chungcheongbuk-do is selected as sample district to be estimated. The degree of overall risk including fire risk, building collapse risk, evacuation risk and gas explosion risk etc. is analyzed in the designated area. The analysis suggests the highest risk degree in Bukmun-ro district which also shows CBD decline phenomenon. Therefore, it can be not only predicted that this area as old downtown has not been provided with disaster prevention operation and urban renewal project, but also judged that administrative assistances for the disaster are required possibly soon.

Feasibility Study of Multi-regional Transmission Main Stabilization for Sustainable Water Supply (수돗물 공급 안정화를 위한 광역상수도 관로 안정화 타당성 연구)

  • Lee, Jae Bum;Yi, Choong Sung;Jung, Kwan Sue
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.395-404
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    • 2013
  • The risk of pipe-bursting in multi-regional transmission mains consisting of 89 % of singled pipeline is so high that pipeline stabilization project is required such as renewal and replacement, pipe paralleling, emergency ties. Pipeline stabilization projects could be postponed at the step of initial decision-making because effect of this project is intangible benefit like activation of economic, improvement of welfare related to water. This study is to suggest quantified economical feasibility model for intangible benefit presumption to solve above problem. Cost reduction of emergency water supply, leakage, burst restore and energy efficiency improvement was altered and applied. As a result of economic analysis taking into account estimated benefit and cost under discount rate 5.5 %, service life 40 years, sufficient economic feasibility analyzed with B/C 2.45, NPV 317,700 million won, IRR 9.09 %.

Nonparametric Analysis of Warranty Data on Engine : Case Study (엔진에 대한 품질보증데이터의 비모수적 분석 사례연구)

  • Baik, Jai-Wook;Jo, Jin-Nam
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.40-47
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    • 2006
  • Claim history data of rather long period were collected to assess reliability and warranty cost analyses. The data were appropriately organized to be used for further statistical analyses. For each critical component, nonparametric statistical method was applied to obtain reliability plot. Hazard plots of the components in a subsystem or system level were also obtained. Competing risk model was assumed to obtain the performance of the subsystem or system level.

Side Population Cell Level in Human Breast Cancer and Factors Related to Disease-free Survival

  • Jin, C.G.;Zou, T.N.;Li, J.;Chen, X.Q.;Liu, X.;Wang, Y.Y.;Wang, X.;Che, Y.H.;Wang, X.C.;Sriplung, Hutcha
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.991-996
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    • 2015
  • Side population (SP) cells have stem cell-like properties with a capacity for self-renewal and are resistant to chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Therefore the presence of SP cells in human breast cancer probably has prognostic value. Objective: To investigate the characteristics of SP cells and identify the relationship between the SP cells levels and clinico-pathological parameters of the breast tumor and disease-free survival (DFS) in breast cancer patients. Materials and Methods: A total of 122 eligible breast cancer patients were consecutively recruited from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2007 at Yunnan Tumor Hospital. All eligible subjects received conventional treatment and were followed up for seven years. Predictors of recurrence and/or metastasis and DFS were analyzed using Cox regression analysis. Human breast cancer cells were also obtained from fresh human breast cancer tissue and cultured by the nucleic acid dye Hoechst33342 with Verapami. Flow cytometry (FCM) was employed to isolate the cells of SP and non-SP types. Results: In this study, SP cells were identified using flow cytometric analysis with Hoechst 33342 dye efflux. Adjusted for age, tumor size, lymph nodal status, histological grade, the Cox model showed a higher risk of recurrence and/or metastasis positively associated with the SP cell level (1.75, 1.02-2.98), as well as with axillary lymph node metastasis (2.99, 1.76-5.09), pathology invasiveness type (1.7, 1.14-2.55), and tumor volume doubling time (TVDT) (1.54, 1.01-2.36). Conclusions: The SP cell level is independently associated with tumor progression and clinical outcome after controlling for other pathological factors. The axillary lymph node status, TVDT and the status of non-invasive or invasive tumor independently predict the prognosis of breast cancer.