전자제품 수요 예측 모델 개발에 관한 연구

This paper presents a forecasting method for domestic demand of electric home appliances. Because of lack of data, some popular methods such as time series analysis may not be appropriate to forecast such a demand domestically. We suggest a systematic and practical method by considering structural parameters and variables which determine the actual demand. We use this model to forecast the demand of color TV. Since the parameters in our model may be variant according to the change of economic environment, our model leads the user to develop a dynamic model to be used in the well-known System Dynamics Approach.