국내 민간항공산업 기술수준 예측

In the classical research, technological forecasting was used in the field of substitution of a new technology product for a old in the developed countries. But in the developing or underdeveloped countries, more interested in the forecasting of technological level in certain industry than technological forecasting in certain product. This article shows the forecasting method of technological level by using a procedure of AHP(Analytical Hierarchy Process). With the historical data of the technological levels in the Korean Civil Aerospace(KCA) industry using AHP questionaire, the Gompertz curve was used to forecast the technological levels of KCA industry.