Quantitative and Qualitative Extrapolation of Carcinogenesis Between Species

As currently conducted, standard rodent bioassays do not provide sufficient information to assess carcinogenic risk to humans at doses thousands of times below the maximum tolerated dose. Recent analyses indicate that measures of carcinogenic potency from these tests are restricted to a narrow range about the maximum tolerated dose and that information on shape of the dose-response is limited in experiments with only two doses and a control. Extrapolation from high to low doses should be based on an understanding of the mechanisms of carcinogenesis. We have postulated that administration of the maximum tolerated dose can increase mitogenesis which, in turn. increases rates of mutagenesis and, thus, carcinogenesis. The animal data are consistent with this mechanism, because about half of all chemicals tested are indeed rodent carcinogens, and about 40% of the positives are not detectably mutagenic. Thus, at low doses where cell killing does not occur, the hazards to humans of rodent carcinogens may be much lower than commonly assumed. In contrast, for high-dose exposures in the workplace, assessment of hazard requires comparatively little extrapolation. Nevertheless. permitted workplace exposures are sometimes close to the tumorigenic dose-rate in animal tests. Regulatory policy to prevent human cancer has primarily addressed synthetic chemicals, yet similar proportions of natural chemicals and synthetic chemicals test positive in rodent studies as expected from an understanding of toxicological defenses, and the vast proportion of human exposures are to natural chemicals. Thus, human exposures to rodent carcinogens are common. The natural chemicals are the control to evaluate regulatory strategies, and the possible hazards from synthetic chemicals should be compared to the possible hazards from natural chemicals. Qualitative extrapolation of the carcinogenic response between species has been investigated by comparing two closely related species: rats and mice. Overall predictive values provide moderate confidence in interspecies extrapolation; however, knowing that a chemical is positive at any site in one species gives only about a 50% chance that it will be positive at the same site in the other species.