THE CHANCES OF PERMAFROST INDUCED BY GREENHOUSE WARMING: A SIMULATION STUDY APPLYING MULTIPLE-LAYER GROUND MODEL

Many of past studies using physically based numerical climate models indicate that increases in atmospheric $CO_2$could enhance summer dryness over continental region in middle-high latitudes. However the models used in those studies do not take account of permafrost in high latitudes. We have carried out a set of experiments applying a version of global climate model that can reproduce realistic distribution of the permafrost. From the results, it is indicated that permafrost functions as a large reservoir in hydrologic cycle maintaining dry, hot summer over continents in northern middle-high latitudes, and that the $CO_2$warming would reduce this function by causing climatological thawing of permafrost, which would result in moister and cooler summer, and warmer winter in the same region. The present study indicates that an inclusion of very simple description of soil freezing process can make a large difference in a model simulation.