철도여객수요예측을 위한 Holt-Winters모형의 초기값 설정방법 비교

An Empirical Comparison of Initialization Methods for Holt-Winters Model with Railway Passenger Demand Data

Railway passenger demand forecasts may be used directly, or as inputs to other optimization model which is use the demand forecasts to produce estimates of other activities. The optimization models require demand forecasts at the most detailed level. In this environment exponential smoothing forecasting methods such as Holt-Winters are appropriate because it is simple and inexpensive in terms of computation. There are several initialization methods for Holt-Winters Model. The purpose of this paper is to compare the initialization methods for Holt-Winters model.