Influence of Parameter Uncertainty on Petroleum Contaminants Distribution in Porous Media

  • Li, J.B. (Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina) ;
  • Huang, G.H. (Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina) ;
  • Zeng, G.M. (Department of Environmental Engineering, Hunan University) ;
  • Chakma, A. (Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina) ;
  • Chen, Z. (Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina)
  • Published : 2002.07.01

Abstract

A methodology based on factorial design and Motto Carlo methods is developed and implemented for incorporating uncertainties within a multiphase subsurface flow and transport simulation system. Due to uncertainties in intrinsic permeability and longitudinal dispersivity, the predicted output is also uncertain based on the well-developed multiphase compositional simulator. The simulation results reveal that the uncertainties in input parameters pose considerable influences on the predicted output, and the mean and variance of permeability will have significant impacts on the modeling output. The proposed method offers an effective tool for evaluating uncertainty in multiphase flow simulation system.

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