철도시스템의 확률론적 위험평가 모델 개발 연구 - 터널화재 위험도 평가에의 적용

Development of Probabilistic Risk Analysis Model on Railroad System - Its Application to Tunnel Fire Risk Analysis

Though the probability of tunnel fire accident is very low, but critical fatalities are expected when it occurred. In this study the effect of critical safety parameters on tunnel fire accident are examined using probabilistic technique. Fire detection time, smoke spread velocity, passenger escape velocity, flash-over time, and emergency service arrival time are considered. In order to estimate the uncertainties of input parameters Monte Carlo simulation are used, and fatalities for each assumed accident scenarios are obtained as results. For the efficiency of iterative calculation PRA(Probabilistic Risk Analysis) code is developed in this study. As a result fire detection have large effect.