A Basic Study on Composite Power System Expansion Planning Considering Probabilistic Reliability Criteria

This paper proposes a method for choosing the best composite power system expansion plan considering probabilistic reliability criterion. The proposed method was modeled as the minimization of the investment budget (economics) for constructing new transmission lines subject to not only deterministic(demand constraint) but also probabilistic reliability criterion(LOLE) with considering the uncertainties of the system elements. This is achieved by modeling the power system expansion problem as an integer programming one. The method solves for the optimal strategy using a probabilistic theory based branch and bound method that utilizes a network flow approach and the maximum flow-minimum cut set theorem. Although the proposed method is applied to a simple sample study, the test results demonstrate a fact that the proposed method is suitable for solving the power system expansion planning problem subject to practical uncertainties for future.