A Study on Probabilistic Optimal Reliability Criterion Determination in Transmission System Expansion Planning

송전계통확충계획을 위한 확률론적 최적신뢰도 기준설정에 관한 연구

This paper approaches a methodology for deciding the optimal reliability criteria for an optimal composite power system expansion planning considering generation and transmission systems simultaneously. A probabilisticreliability criterion, $LOLE_R$(Loss of Load Expectation), is used in this study. The optimalreliability criterion $LOLE_R*$ is decided at minimum cost point of total cost curve which is the sum of the utility cost associated with construction cost and the customer outage cost associated with supply interruptions for load considering forced outage rates of elements(generators and lines) in long term forecasting. The characteristicsand effectiveness of this methodology are illustrated by the case study using MRBTS size system.