Modeling Generators Maintenance Outage Based on the Probabilistic Method

발전기 보수정지를 고려한 확률적 발전모델링

In this paper, a new probabilistic generation modeling method which can address the characteristics of changed electricity industry is proposed. The major contribution of this paper can be captured in the development of a probabilistic generation modeling considering generator maintenance outage and in the classification of market demand into multiple demand clusters for the applications to electricity markets. Conventional forced outage rates of generators are conceptually combined with maintenance outage of generators and, consequently, effective outage rates of generators are new iy defined in order to properly address the probabilistic characteristic of generation in electricity markets. Then, original market demands are classified into several distinct demand clusters, which are defined by the effective outage rates of generators and by the inherent characteristic of the original demand. We have found that generators have different effective outage rates values at each classified demand cluster, depending on the market situation. From this, therefore, it can be seen that electricity markets can also be classified into several groups which show similar patterns and that the fundamental characteristics of power systems can be more efficiently analyzed in electricity markets perspectives, for this classification can be widely applicable to other technical problems in power systems such as generation scheduling, power flow analysis, price forecasts, and so on.