A Study on the Uncertainty of Additional Generating Capacity in Long Term Electricity Plan

전력수급기본계획에서 발전소 준공 불확실성에 대한 고찰

The uncertainty of long term electricity plan consists of the uncertainty of demand forecast and additional generating capacity. Demand forecast is clearly improved the accuracy than the past through improving forecasting methods. However, the uncertainty of additional generating capacity is increased due to the change of market environment. In an operation by a sole utility, additional generating capacity would be possible by the regulation of government. Currently the generation companies have spined off from KEPCO and some IPPs participate the electricity market. It increases the uncertainty due to weakened regulation. Also the environment movement by NGOs and occurrence of civil affairs cause the increase of uncertainty. This research would analyze the current situation on the uncertainty of additional generating capacity and construction delays. Furthermore this research would present the plan to reflecting it in long term electricity plan.