Analysis on the Occurrence Probability Distribution of Tidal Levels using Harmonic Constants

조화상수를 이용한 조위 발생확률분포 분석

The occurrence probability (OP) distributions of tide levels using harmonic constants of six tidal gauging stations in Korean coastal zone were estimated and analysed in detail. OP analysis using harmonic constants data of Incheon(Youldo), Mokpo, Yeosu, Pusan, Pohang and Sokcho was carried out and compared with the OP using hourly tidal elevation data which were served through the Internet Homepage by the National Ocean Research Institute. The tidal elevation data were divided by the AHHW (ALLW) value referenced to MSL in order to compare the OP patterns in a relative scale. The OP of the tidal elevation calculated using 38 harmonic tidal constituents relatively well agreed with those of hourly observed tidal elevation data. However, the OP results using four harmonic tidal constituents overestimate the occurrence probability at the peak points and underestimate at the tail-regions of the OP. Especially, the OP patterns of the Sokcho and Pohang tidal gauging stations on the East Sea show totally different patterns and the estimation method using four harmonic constants should be modified and application should be strictly limited on the East Sea areas. The OP patterns are considerably well generated in case of the OP generation using the additional two or three dominant tidal constituents,