Spring Flow Prediction affected by Hydro-power Station Discharge using the Dynamic Neuro-Fuzzy Local Modeling System

This paper introduces the new generic dynamic neuro-fuzzy local modeling system (DNFLMS) that is based on a dynamic Takagi-Sugeno (TS) type fuzzy inference system for complex dynamic hydrological modeling tasks. The proposed DNFLMS applies a local generalization principle and an one-pass training procedure by using the evolving clustering method to create and update fuzzy local models dynamically and the extended Kalman filtering learning algorithm to optimize the parameters of the consequence part of fuzzy local models. The proposed DNFLMS is applied to develop the inference model to forecast the flow of Waikoropupu Springs, located in the Takaka Valley, South Island, New Zealand, and the influence of the operation of the 32 Megawatts Cobb hydropower station on springs flow. It is demonstrated that the proposed DNFLMS is superior in terms of model accuracy, model complexity, and computational efficiency when compared with a multi-layer perceptron trained with the back propagation learning algorithm and well-known adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system, both of which adopt global generalization.