Current and Future Changes in Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent and Their Potential Linkages with Atmospheric Circulation

현재와 미래의 북반구 눈피복 변화와 대기순환과의 잠재적인 상관성

Snow cover is a potential water resource for later spring and summer seasons as well as a thermal mirror with high reflectivity causing decreases of surface air temperature during cold winter seasons. In this study, current and future changes in Northern Hemisphere snow extent and their potential linkages with atmospheric circulation are examined. The NOAA AVHRR visible snow extent (1967-2006) data as well as observational (NCEP-DOE 1979-2006) and modeled (GFDL 2.1 2081-2100) pressure and surface air temperature data are used. Analyses of observational data demonstrate that the snow extent in meteorological spring (March to April) and summer (June to August) has significantly decreased since the late 1980s. The offset of snow seasons (the timing of snow melt in spring) have also significantly advanced particularly in Europe, East Asia, and northwestern North America. Analyses of pressure fields reveal that the spatial patterns of the earlier snow melt are associated with changes in atmospheric circulation such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In the positive winter AO years, multiple positive pressure departure cores in the upper troposphere (200hPa) are observed over the mid-latitude regions from March to mid-April, while a negative pressure departure core (70hPa) prevails over the Arctic Ocean. The reversed anomaly patterns related to later snow melt occur in negative winter AO years. The comparison between current and future thermal spring onsets suggest that snow melt patterns will intensify with larger greenhouse gas emissions, indicating earlier hydrological spring onset.