The Probability of Solar Proton Events (SPEs) depending on solar and interplanetary type II bursts

  • Published : 2011.04.15

Abstract

Solar Proton Events (SPEs, ${\geq}\;10\;cm^{-1}s^{-1}sr^{-1}$ with >10 MeV) are very important for space weather forecasting. It is well known that they are associated with solar flares and/or CME-driven shocks. Especially, the CME-driven shocks have been observed as solar and interplanetary type II bursts. In this study, we estimated the occurrence probability of SPEs depending on three groups: (1) metric, (2) decameter-hectometric (D-H), and (3) meter-to-kilometric (m-to-km) type II bursts. For this work, we used SPEs and all available type II burst data in 1996-2004. The primary findings of this study are as follows. First, the majority (77%) of the m-to-km type II bursts are associated with SPEs and its probability is noticeably higher than D-H type II bursts probability strongly depend on longitude: eastern (0%), center(45%), and western (33%) for X-class associated metric type II bursts, eastern (15%), center (55%), and western (50%) for X-class associated D-H type II bursts, eastern (17%), center (77%), and western (64%) for X-class associated m-to-km type II bursts. Third, for m-to-km type II bursts, the SPE probability increases with CME speed: 400km/s${\leq}$V <1000km/s (36%), 1000km/s ${\leq}$V<1500km/s (40%), 1500km/s${\leq}$V (66%). Finally, we expect that these results will be used for setting up more reasonable solar proton event forecasting models.

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