Predictability of the f/g time series

  • Published : 2011.04.05

Abstract

Large solar flares are associated with various aspects of space weather effects. Numerous attempts have been made to predict when the solar flare will be occurred mainly based on the configuration of the magnetic field of its flaring site. We analyze the time series of f/g which indicates a representative measure of the sunspot complexity to see whether it shows a possibility to be predicted without huge amounts of observation. Two kinds of analysis results are presented. One is from its power spectrum giving that there's no significantly persistent periodicity within a few days. Its de-trended fluctuation shows the Hurst exponent larger than 0.5 implying that the f/g time series has a long-term memory in time scales less than 10 days.

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