Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference (한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Quantile regression analysis: A novel approach to determine distributional changes in rainfall over Sri Lanka

  • S.S.K, Chandrasekara (Dept. of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National Univ.) ;
  • Uranchimeg, Sumiya (Dept. of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National Univ.) ;
  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Dept. of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National Univ.)
  • Published : 2017.05.24
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Abstract

Extreme hydrological events can cause serious threats to the society. Hence, the selection of probability distributions for extreme rainfall is a fundamental issue. For this reason, this study was focused on understanding possible distributional changes in annual daily maximum rainfalls (AMRs) over time in Sri Lanka using quantile regression. A simplified nine-category distributional-change scheme based on comparing empirical probability density function of two years (i.e. the first year and the last year), was used to determine the distributional changes in AMRs. Daily rainfall series of 13 station over Sri Lanka were analyzed for the period of 1960-2015. 4 distributional change categories were identified for the AMRs. 5 stations showed an upward trend in all the quantiles (i.e. 9 quantiles: from 0.05 to 0.95 with an increment of 0.01 for the AMR) which could give high probability of extreme rainfall. On the other hand, 8 stations showed a downward trend in all the quantiles which could lead to high probability of the low rainfall. Further, we identified a considerable spatial diversity in distributional changes of AMRs over Sri Lanka.

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