Demand and Supply of Dental Manpower by the Econometrical Model

계량경제모델에 의한 치과의사 이력수급에 관한 연구

The demand and supply of dentists was studied by the econometrical model. It is based on the data of socio-economic-cultural statistic from 1967 to 1977; GNP, average monthly consumption expenditure per household, consumption of milk, populat ion, consumption of energy, water supply per person a day and entrance rate of senior high school. 1.The curved regression equation and multiple correlation coefficient (R)between the number of dentists(Y) and year (x)were $Y=4,122(1.06)^x$,R=0.995. 2. From 1982 to 1985, expected demand and expected supply will be approximately balanced. But dentists will be oversupplied conspicuously from the year of 1986. Such a oversupply will be remarkably incresed to the amount of 1860 in the year of 2000. 3. It is seemed that balanced number of graduates of dental colleges will be about 350 to the year of 1985, from the year of 1986, will be about 450, from the year of 1981, will be about 600 and from the year of 1996, will be about 700. 4. In 2000, persons served by each dentist will be 3550 by the expected supply and 4120 by the expected demand.