A Study on the Hog Price Patterns and It's Forecasting Model

돼지가격(價格)의 변동(變動)패턴과 예측모형(豫測模型)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)

This study aims at analysis hog cycles and seasonal price patterns, and at develop the procedure for price forecasting based on the relative price ratios by farmers. Seasonal price patterns have been a persistent feature of hog markets. Some month have historically high price and other months historically low price. Hog price tend to be high in Feb, May, June, Sept, winter (Nov. to Jan.) and tend to be low in the other months. There have been four price cycles for 12 years, 1972-1984, the length of the hog price cycle has varied from 24 month to 42 months, with the irregular frequency. The increasing period of the price cycle lasted 23 months and the decreasing period of the price cycle lasted 13 months. Tables 2, 3, 4 in this study show average hog price ratios and the number of times price fall, rose for one, two, and three months ahead of each calendar month.