세계원유가격 및 경제성장분석을 위한 장기국제원유무역모형

Long-term International Oil Trade Model for the Analysis of Oil Price and Economic Growth

Since energy consumption of developing countries is expected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, the oil-importing developing countries are likely to encounter chronic balance-of-payments difficulties. To analyze the quantitative impacts of this problem, we develop a computable model of international trade. This paper presents four alternative cases - varying the assumptions with respect to energy supplies. This shows that relatively small difference in supplies can lead to 100% differences in the energy prices projected for 1990.