대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A (The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A)

대한전기학회 (The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers)
권호 표지

온도와 부하의 비선형성을 이용한 단기부하예측에서의 TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) 모델

TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Nonlinearity of Temperature and Load

  • 이경훈 (한양대 대학원 전기공학과) ;
  • 이윤호 (한양대 대학원 전기공학과 연구원) ;
  • 김진오 (한양대 전기공학과)
  • 발행 : 2001.09.01
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초록

This paper proposes TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) model for short-term load forecasting including temperature variable. In the scatter diagram of daily peak load versus daily high or low temperature, we can find out that the load-temperature relationship has a negative slope in the lower regime and a positive slope in the upper regime due to the heating and cooling load, respectively. TAR model is adequate for analyzing these phenomena since TAR model is a piecewise linear autoregressive model. In this paper, we estimated and forecasted one day-ahead daily peak load by applying TAR model using this load-temperature characteristic in these regimes. The results are compared with those of linear and quadratic regression models.

키워드

참고문헌

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