Abstract
To investigate the safety of the in-use vehicles emission against the tail-pipe emission regulation, in-use vehicles emission trend according to vehicle mileage should be known. But it is impossible to collect all vehicles emission data In order to know that. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a statistically meaningful inference method that can be used generally to estimate in-use vehicles emissions distribution according to the vehicle mileage with relatively less in-use vehicles emission data. To do this, a linear regression model that solved the problems of data normality and common variance of error was studied. As a way that can secure the data normality, In(emission) instead of emission itself was used as a sampled data. And a reciprocal of mileage was suggested as a factor to secure common variance of error. As an example, 36 data of FTP-75 test were handled in this study. As a result, using average value and standard deviation at each mileage which were inferred from a linear regression model, probability density distribution and cumulative distribution of emissions according to the vehicle mileage were obtained and it was possible to predict the deterioration factor through full useful life mileage and also possible to decide whether those in-use vehicles will meet the tail-pipe emission regulations or not.
