원유수입과 환율변동성

Petroleum Imports and Exchange Rate Volatility

This paper presents an empirical analysis of exchange rate volatility, petroleum's import price and industrial production on petroleum imports. The GARCH framework is used to measure the exchange rate volatility. One of the most appealing features of the GARCH model is that it captures the volatility clustering phenomenon. We found one long-run relationship between petroleum imports, import price, industrial production, and exchange rate volatility using Johansen's multivariate cointegration methodology. Since there exists a cointegrating vector, therefore, we employ an error correction model to examine the short-run dynamic linkage, finding that the exchange rate volatility performs a key role in the short-run. This paper also apply impulse-response functions to provide the dynamic responses of energy consumption to the exchange rate volatility. The results show that the response of energy consumption to exchange rate volatility declines at the first month and dies out very quickly.