DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Fractional Integration in the Context of Deterministic Trends

  • Gil-Alana, L.A. (University of Navarre, Faculty of Economics)
  • Published : 2004.08.01

Abstract

In this article we show that the tests of Robinson (1994) may have serious problems in distinguishing between fractionally integrated processes in the context of deterministic trends. The results are obtained via Monte Carlo experiments. A simple procedure, based on the t-values of the coefficients from the differenced regression, is presented to correctly specify the time series of interest and, an empirical application, using data of the US GNP is also carried out at the end of the article.

Keywords

References

  1. Review of Economic Studies v.53 On the theory of testing for unit roots in observed time series Bhargava, A.
  2. Journal of the American Statistical Association v.74 Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root Dickey, D.A.;Fuller, W.A. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
  3. Economic Modelling v.16 Fractional integration with monthly data Gil-Alana, L.A. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-9993(99)00017-6
  4. Journal of Time Series Analysis v.22 Testing stochastic cycles in macroeconomic time series Gil-Alana, L.A. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9892.00233
  5. Journal of Econometrics v.80 Testing of unit roots and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series Gil-Alana, L.A.;Robinson, P.M. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(97)00038-9
  6. Journal of Applied Econometrics v.16 Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income Gil-Alana, L.A.;Robinson, P.M. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.597
  7. Econometrica v.55 Time series regression with a unit root Phillips, P.C.B. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913237
  8. Biometrika v.75 Testing for a unit root in time series regression Phillips, P.C.B.;P. Perron https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
  9. The art of scientific computing Numerical recipes Press, W.H.;Flannery, B.P.;Teukolsky, S.A.;Wetterling, W.T.
  10. Journal of Monetary Economics v.29 Modelling long run behaviour with the fractional ARIMA model Sowell, F. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(92)90016-U
  11. Journal of the American Statistical Association v.89 Efficient tests of nonstationary hypotheses Robinson, P.M. https://doi.org/10.2307/2291004
  12. Econometrica v.51 Testing residuals from least square regression being generated by the Gaussian random walk Sargan,J.D.;A.Bhargava https://doi.org/10.2307/1912252
  13. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics v.54 LM tests for a unit root in the presence of deterministic trends Schmidt, P.;P.C.B. Phillips https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1992.tb00002.x