우리나라 멸치자원량추정을 위한 잉여생산모델과 최대엔트로피모델의 비교분석

A Comparative Analysis of Surplus Production Models and a Maximum Entropy Model for Estimating the Anchovy's Stock in Korea

  • 투고 : 2006.03.18
  • 심사 : 2006.03.31
  • 발행 : 2006.04.30

초록

For fishery stock assessment and optimum sustainable yield of anchovy in Korea, surplus production(SP) models and a maximum entropy(ME) model are employed in this paper. For determining appropriate models, five traditional SP models-Schaefer model, Schnute model, Walters and Hilborn model, Fox model, and Clarke, Yoshimoto and Pooley (CYP) model- are tested for effort and catch data of anchovy that occupies 7% in the total fisheries landings of Korea. Only CYP model of five SP models fits statistically significant at the 10% level. Estimated intrinsic growth rates are similar in both CYP and ME models, while environmental carrying capacity of the ME model is quite greater than that of the CYP model. In addition, the estimated maximum sustainable yield(MSY), 213,287 tons in the ME model is slightly higher than that of CYP model (198,364 tons). Biomass for MSY in the ME model, however, is calculated 651,000 tons which is considerably greater than that of the CYP model (322,881 tons). It is meaningful in that two models are compared for noting some implications about any significant difference of stock assessment and their potential strength and weakness.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Bailey, R.S., Simmonds, E.J. 'The use of acoustic surveys in the assessment of the North Sea herring stock and comparison with other methods' Reun. Conns. int Explor. Mer., 189: 9-17, 1990
  2. Beverton, R.J.H., S.J. Holt 'On the Dynamics of Exploited Fish Populations' Fisheries Investment Series 2, Vol. 19, UK Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, London, 1957
  3. Brierley, A.S., Gull, S.F., Wafg, M.H. 'A Baysian maximum entropy reconstruction of stock distribution and inference of stock density from line-transect acoustic-survey data', ICES J. Marine Science, 60: 446-452, 2003 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1054-3139(03)00027-4
  4. Brooke, A., D. Kendrick, A. Meeraus, R. Raman 'GAMS A User's Guide' GAMS Development Corporation, 1998
  5. Choi, S,K, Kim, J.Y., Kim, S.S., Choi, Y.M., Choi, K.H. 'Biomass estimation of anchovy by acoustic and trawl surveys during spring season in the southern Korean waters' J. Korean Soc. Fish. Res., 4: 20-29, 2001.(in Korean)
  6. Chow, G. 'Econometric Analysis by Control Methods', John, Wiley & Sons, 1981
  7. Clarke, R.P., S.S. Yoshimoto, S.G. Pooley 'A Bioeconomic Analysis of the North-western Hawaiian Islands Lobster Fishery' Marine Resource Economics 7: 115-140, 1992 https://doi.org/10.1086/mre.7.3.42629029
  8. Coppola, G. 'A Production Function for Fisheries: an Analytical Approach' Paper presented at the 5th Bioeconomic Modelling Workshop, Edinburgh, pp.24-27 October 1995
  9. Fox, W.J. 'An Exponential Surplus Yield Model for Optimising Exploited Fish Populations' Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 99: 80-88, 1970 https://doi.org/10.1577/1548-8659(1970)99<80:AESMFO>2.0.CO;2
  10. Fulton.Karp, L. 'Estimating the Objectives of a Public Firm in a Natural Resources Industry' Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 16: 268-287, 1989 https://doi.org/10.1016/0095-0696(89)90014-4
  11. Golan, A., G. Judge, L. Karp 'A Maximum Entropy Approach to Estimation and Inference in Dynamic models or Counting Fish in the Sea using Maximum Entropy' Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 20: 559-582, 1996a https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(95)00864-0
  12. Golan, A., G. Judge, D. Miller 'A Maximum Entropy Econometrics' John Wiley & Sons, 1996b
  13. Jacobson, L.D., De Oliveira, J.A.A., Barange, M., Cisneros-Mata, M.A., Felix-Uraga, R., Kim, J.Y., Natsuura, Y., Niquen, M., Porteiro, C., Rothschild, B., Sanchez, R.P., Serra, R., Uriarte, A., Wada, T. 'Surplus production, variability, and climate change in the great sardine and anchovy fisheries' Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 58:1891-1903, 2001 https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-58-9-1891
  14. NFRDI(National Fisheries Research and Development Institute) 'Report on stock assessment of target species of TAC', 2005.(in Korean)
  15. Pascoe, S. 'A Bioeconomic Analysis of the UK Fisheries of the English Channel' PhD Thesis, University of Portsmouth, UK, 1998
  16. Paris, Q., R.E. Howitt 'An Analysis of Ill-posed Production Problems using ME' American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80: 124-138, 1998 https://doi.org/10.2307/3180275
  17. Pella, J.J., P.K. Tomlinson 'A Generalized Stock Production Model' Bulletin of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission 13: 419-496, 1969
  18. Pyo, H.D., K.N. Lee 'A Comparative Analysis of Surplus Production Model and Maximum Entropy Model for Estimating the Anchovy's Stock' Session 12:Fisheries Dynamics(1), pp.2-8 in: Proceedings of EAFE(European Association of Fisheries Economists) XV Conference, IFREMER, Brest, France, pp.15-16 May 2003
  19. Schaefer, M.B. 'Some Aspects of the Dynamics of Populations Important to the Management of Commercial Marine Fisheries' Bulletin of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission 1:247-285, 1954
  20. Schaefer, M.B. 'A Study of the Dynamics of the Fishery for Yellowfin Tuna in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean' Bulletin of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission 2: 247-285, 1957
  21. Schnute, J. 'Improved Estimates from the Schaefer Production Model: Theoretical Considerations' J. the Fisheries Research Board of Canada 34: 583-603, 1977 https://doi.org/10.1139/f77-094
  22. Shannon, C.E. 'A Mathematical Theory of Communication' Bell System Technical Journal 27: 379-423, 1948 https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x
  23. Walters, C.J., R. Hilborn 'Adaptive Control of Fishing System' J. Fisheries Research Board of Canada 33: 145-159, 1976 https://doi.org/10.1139/f76-017