Korean Journal of Veterinary Research (대한수의학회지)

The Korean Society of Veterinary Science (대한수의학회)
권호 표지

Simulation model-based evaluation of a survey program with reference to risk analysis

  • Chang, Ki-Yoon (Animal Health Division, Livestock Bureau. Ministry of Agriculture & Forestry) ;
  • Pak, Son-Il (Department of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University)
  • Accepted : 2006.05.24
  • Published : 2006.06.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

A stochastic simulation model incorporated with Reed-Frost approach was derived for evaluating diagnostic performance of a test used for a screening program of an infectious disease. The Reed-Frost model was used to characterize the within-herd spread of the disease using a hypothetical example. Specifically, simulation model was aimed to estimate the number infected animals in an infected herd, in which imperfect serologic tests are performed on samples taken from herds and to illustrate better interpreting survey results at herd-level when uncertainty inevitably exists. From a risk analysis point of view, model output could be appropriate in developing economic impact assessment models requiring probabilistic estimates of herd-level performance in susceptible populations. The authors emphasize the importance of knowing the herd-level diagnostic performance, especially in performing emergency surveys in which immediate control measures should be taken following the survey. In this context this model could be used in evaluating efficacy of a survey program and monitoring infection status in the area concerned.

Keywords

References

  1. Carpenter TE. Epidemiologic programs for computers and calculators: epidemiologic modeling using a microcomputer spreadsheet package. Am J Epidemiol 1984, 120, 943-951 https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113965
  2. Carpenter TE, Berry SL, Glenn JS. Economics of Brucella avis control in sheep: epidemiologic simulation model. J Am Vet Med Assoc 1987, 190, 977-982
  3. Carpenter TE, Gardner IA. Simulation modeling to determine herd-level predictive values and sensitivity based on individual-animal test sensitivity and specificity and sample size. Prev Vet Med 1996, 27, 57-66 https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-5877(95)00559-5
  4. Collins MT, Morgan IR. Epidemiological model of paratuberculosis in dairy cattle. Prev Vet Med 1991, 11, 131-146 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5877(05)80035-2
  5. Donald AW, Gardner IA, Wiggins AD. Cut-off points for aggregate herd testing in the presence of disease clustering and correlation of test errors. Prev Vet Med 1994, 19, 167-187 https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-5877(94)90087-6
  6. Gohm DS, Thur B, Audige L, Hofmann MA. A survey of Newcastle disease in Swiss laying-hen flocks using serological testing and simulation modeling. Prev Vet Med 1999, 38, 277-288 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5877(98)00136-6
  7. Good CM, Thorburn MA, McEwen SA. Simulating the effect of eliminating routine bacterial screening on the negative predictive value of the Ontario fish hatchery disease monitoring program. Prev Vet Med 2001, 50, 101-108 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5877(01)00219-7
  8. Howard SC, Donnelly CA. The importance of immediate destruction in epidemics of foot and mouth disease. Res Vet Sci 2000, 69, 189-196 https://doi.org/10.1053/rvsc.2000.0415
  9. Hurd HS, Kaneene JB. The application of simulation models and systems analysis in epidemiology: a review. Prev Vet Med 1993, 15, 81-99 https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-5877(93)90105-3
  10. Martin SW, Shoukri M, Thorburn MA. Evaluating the health status of herds based on tests applied to individuals. Prev Vet Med 1992, 14, 33-43 https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-5877(92)90082-Q
  11. Martin SW, Meek AH, Willeberg P. Veterinary epidemiology: principles and methods. Iowa State University Press, Ames, 1994
  12. Morris RS, Pfeiffer DU, Jackson R. The epidemiology of Mycobacterium bovis infections. Vet Microbiol 1994, 40, 153-177 https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-1135(94)90053-1
  13. Noordhuizen JPTM, Frankena K, van der Hoofd CM, Graat EAM. Application of Quantitative Methods in Veterinary Epidemiology. Wageningen Pers, Wageningen, 1997
  14. Ogawa T, Fujisono S. Theoretical epidemiology on bovine ephemeral fever outbreaks in Tanegashima Island, Kagoshima prefecture of Japan in 1998. J Vet Med Sci 1992, 54, 923-929 https://doi.org/10.1292/jvms.54.923
  15. Sanson RL. The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease: implication for New Zealand. NZ Vet J 1994, 42, 41-53 https://doi.org/10.1080/00480169.1994.35785
  16. Tsutsui T, Minami N, Koiwai M, Hamaoka T, Yamane I, Shimura K A stochastic-modeling evaluation of the foot-and-mouth-disease survey conducted after the outbreak in Miyazaki, Japan in 2000. Prev Vet Med 2003, 61, 45-58 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5877(03)00160-0
  17. Wahlstrom H, Englund L, Carpenter T, Emanuelson U, Engvall A, Vagsholm I. A Reed-Frost model of the spread of tuberculosis within seven Swedish extensive farmed fallow deer herds. Prev Vet Med 1998, 35, 181-193 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5877(98)00061-0