Statistical Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from MM5 for Heavy Snowfall Events in Yeongdong Region

영동대설 사례에 대한 MM5 강수량 모의의 통계적 검증

Precipitation forecasts from MM5 have been verified for the period 1989-2001 over Yeongdong region to show a tendency of model forecast. We select 57 events which are related with the heavy snowfall in Yeongdong region. They are classified into three precipitation types; mountain type, cold-coastal type, and warm type. The threat score (TS), the probability of detection (POD), and the false-alarm rate (FAR) are computed for categorical verification and the mean squared error (MSE) is also computed for scalar accuracy measures. In the case of POD, warm, mountain, and cold-coastal precipitation type are 0.71, 0.69, and 0.55 in turn, respectively. In aspect of quantitative verification, mountain and cold-coastal type are relatively well matched between forecasts and observations, while for warm type MM5 tends to overestimate precipitation. There are 12 events for the POD below 0.2, mountain, cold-coastal, warm type are 2, 7, 3 events, respectively. Most of their precipitation are distributed over the East Sea nearby Yeongdong region. These events are also shown when there are no or very weak easterlies in the lower troposphere. Even in the case that we use high resolution sea surface temperature (about 18 km) for the boundary condition, there are not much changes in the wind direction to compare that with low resolution sea surface temperature (about 100 km).