Development of the Operation Cost Models for Preliminary Assessment of the Urban Railways

도시철도 예비타당성을 위한 운영비용함수 모형의 개발

In this research, we were going to make the function which can forecast the operating cost of metropolitan railroad that is performing a role of assistant highway within the city. In order to do this, based on service records of subway line 1st to 8th in Seoul, we extracted 23 variables which can affect to the operating cost, and we selected the final variable for estimate the function of operating cost from correlation among variables and influence analysis. Then, we performed regression analysis by stages using final variable. 6 independent variables are chosen for presuming the operating cost, and we obtained the final 3 variables (quantity of holding motor cars, peak quantity of possessed motor cars, and quantity of stations) as a result of regression analysis. Through this research, function of operating cost of metropolitan railroad has better applicability than existing preliminary validity, and it is used by further preliminary validity investigation and master plan or validity investigation which is accompanied by operation designing, thus we expect that it could make a great contribution to the priority order of investment for metropolitan railroad or process of policy decision.

본 연구에서는 도시내 보조간선도로의 역할을 하고 있는 도시철도의 운영비용을 추정할 수 있는 함수를 개발하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 서울 지하철 1호선$\sim$8호선의 운행실적을 바탕으로 운영비용에 영향을 줄 수 있는 23개의 변수들을 추출하여 최종변수간의 인과관계 분석을 위한 회귀분석(Regression)을 활용하였다. 분석결과 총 6개의 최종변수가 선정되었으며 그 중 도시철도 운영비용함수를 설명하는 변수는 전동차보유량, 차량소유_첨두 및 역수인 것으로 나타났다. 연구 결과 도시철도의 투자우선순위나 정책 격정과정에 큰 기여를 할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.