Abstract
It is necessary to predict future water pollution sources in the establishment of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plan for watershed management. There are some difficulties and limits in estimating the pollution sources accurately since the prediction method is not firmly established. This study reviewed the existing methods of prediction and developed a technique characteristics. The characteristics were obtained by analyzing the change pattern of pollution sources by region and incorporated in the technique. A distinctive feature of the technique is to eliminate the influences of land use change included in the pollution source data of a region. The technique has been applied and tested. The test result showed the improvement on the prediction accuracy. A computer program was also developed for the easy application of the technique.