Risk Assessment of Slopes using Failure Probability in Korean Railways

파괴확률을 이용한 철도절개면의 위험도 평가

  • 김현기 (한국철도기술연구원 궤도토목연구본부) ;
  • 김수삼 (한양대학교 건설환경시스템공학과)
  • Published : 2008.04.30


Abstract Infiltration of rainfall that may lead to reduce resistance force due to reduction of matric suction and to increase driving force due to increase of self weight makes the slope fail. There are many specifications to make slope stable based on factor of safety. Although result of slope stability analysis satisfy the specifications, slope failures triggered by rainfall are frequently occurred in reality because slope stability analysis cannot consider uncertainty of each soil properties. This is why conventional analysis has limitation and development of alternative method is needed. So it is suggested to adopt the reliability analysis rather than design based on factor of safety into designing safer structure. Through the evaluation of handicaps for the factor of safety based design, calculation of soil properties by site investigation, and reliability analysis considering distribution of each soil properties, distribution of failure probability in railway slope is obtained. Then, Risk assessment of slopes in Korean railway is executed from the results. Damage loss and incoming loss are considered as the loss. Using these results, it is possible to make proper countermeasure or efficient maintenance.


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