Journal of the Korean Society for Railway (한국철도학회논문집)

The Korean Society for Railway (한국철도학회)
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Estimating Probability of Mode Choice at Regional Level by Considering Spatial Association of Departure Place

출발지 공간 연관성을 고려한 지역별 수단선택확률 추정 연구

  • 엄진기 (한국철도기술연구원, 철도교통물류연구실) ;
  • 박만식 (고려대학교, 의료통계학교실) ;
  • 허태영 (한국해양대학교, 데이터정보학과)
  • Published : 2009.10.30
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Abstract

In general, the analysis of travelers' mode choice behavior is accomplished by developing the utility functions which reflect individual's preference of mode choice according to their demographic and travel characteristics. In this paper, we propose a methodology that takes the spatial effects of individuals' departure locations into account in the mode choice model. The statistical models considered here are spatial logistic regression model and conditional autoregressive model taking a spatial association parameter into account. We employed the Bayesian approach in order to obtain more reliable parameter estimates. The proposed methodology allows us to estimate mode shares by departure places even though the survey does not cover all areas.

일반적으로 교통수단선택 모형은 이용자의 인구 및 개인통행특성 등을 반영한 수단별 선호도를 효용함수로 구축하여 분석하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이용자의 출발지에 대한 공간적 연관성을 수단선택모형에 고려한 방법을 제시하였다. 이를 위하여 공간적 연관성을 포함하는 공간로지스틱 회귀모형을 고려하였다. 신뢰성있는 추정값을 얻기 위해 베이지안 기법을 적용하였으며 이 연구에서 제시한 방법론은 수단선호도 조사가 이루어지지 않은 지역에 대해서도 수단분담률을 추정할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

References

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