불확실성하에서 북태평양 미드웨이 시험어장의 경제성 평가 : 다랑어연승 어장을 중심으로

The Economic Evaluation of Experimental Fishing Grounds in the North Pacific Midway Ocean Under Uncertainty : Focusing on Tuna Longline Fishing Grounds

  • 문성주 (경상대학교 수산경영학과(경상대학교 해양산업연구소)) ;
  • 진상대 (경상대학교 수산경영학과) ;
  • 안영수 (경상대학교 수산경영학과(경상대학교 해양산업연구소)) ;
  • 김영승 (국립수산과학원) ;
  • 황선재 (국립수산과학원)
  • 발행 : 2009.06.30

초록

Developing foreign fishing ground executed in various uncertainty such as fishing price, oil price, exchange rate. But traditional economic evaluation method, CVP(Cost-Volume-Profit) analysis doesn't consider uncertainty of foreign fishing ground. So we need new approach about economic evaluation that can take into account uncertainty. This study focus on the economic evaluation about experimental survey of tuna fishing grounds in the north pacific ocean by sensitive analysis and simulation. The results of the economic evaluation can be summarized as follows. First, when we take it for granted that the other uncertainty factors except for each fishing price, oil price, and exchange rate are constant. CVP gross sales has positive relation to the increasing rate of oil price, exchange rate(W/$) and negative relation to the increasing rate of fishing price and exchange rate(W/${\yen}$). Second, when we are supposing that fishing price, oil price, and exchange rate are followed. the probability of less than CVP gross sales is A ship(48.87%), B ship(49.64%), C ship(50.55%). Consequently, the economic evaluation by sensitive analysis and simulation is more useful tool than CVP(Cost-Volume-Profit) analysis under uncertainty.

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