KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Assessment of Climate Chanage Effect on Temperature and Drought in Seoul : Based on the AR4 SRES A2 Senario

기후변화가 서울지역의 기온 및 가뭄에 미치는 영향 평가 : AR4 SRES A2 시나리오를 기반으로

  • 경민수 (인하대학교 사회기반시스템공학부) ;
  • 이용원 (인하대학교 사회기반시스템공학부) ;
  • 김형수 (인하대학교 사회기반시스템공학부) ;
  • 김병식 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원연구실)
  • Received : 2009.01.20
  • Accepted : 2009.03.05
  • Published : 2009.03.31
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Abstract

This study suggests the assessment technique for climate change effect on drought in Korea based on the AR4 SRES A2 scenario reported in IPCC fourth assessment report in 2007. IPCC provides monthly outputs of 24 climate models through the DDC. One of the models is BCM2 model which was developed at BCCR in Norway and NCEP data is used for downscaling. The K-NN(K-Nearest Neighbor) and ANN(Artificial Neural Network) are selected as downscaling technique to downscale the temperature and precipitation at Seoul station in Korea. K-NN could downscale both temperature and precipitation well. ANN made a good result for temperature, but it gave a divergence result in precipitation. Finally, SPI of Seoul station is computed to evaluate the effect of climate change on drought. BCM2 predicted that temperature will increase and drought severity will increase because of the increased drought spell at Seoul station.

본 연구에서는 2007년 IPCC AR4와 함께 제시된 SRES A2 시나리오를 이용해서 기후변화가 한반도 가뭄에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위한 방안을 제시하고자 한다. IPCC는 DDC를 통해서 총 24개의 기후모형의 결과를 월 단위로제공하고 있다. 이 중 노르웨이 BCCR의 BCM2 모형과 NCEP 자료를 이용하여 최근린법(K-NN)과 인공신경망(Artificial Neural Network)이론을 적용함으로써, 온도와 강수량을 기상청 산하 서울지점으로 축소하였다. 최근린법의 경우, 온도와 강수량 모두를 축소하는 것이 가능하였지만, 인공신경망이론을 적용하여 축소할 경우, 온도는 비교적 잘 축소하였으나 강수량의 경우는 발산하는 결과를 보였다. 마지막으로 기후변화가 가뭄에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위해서 최근린법으로부터 축소된 월 단위 강수량을 이용하여 서울지점의 표준강수지수를 산정하였다. BCM2 모형에 의하면 서울지점의 경우, 미래에는 전반적으로 온도가 증가하고 가뭄의 지속기간이 길어짐에 따라 가뭄이 더욱더 심각하게 된다는 결과를 예측하였다.

Keywords

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