Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회논문지)

The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회)
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An analysis on the competition patterns between Paper-book and E-book using the Lotka-Volterra model

Lotka-Volterra 모형을 적용한 Paper-boook과 E-book의 경쟁관계 유형 분석

  • Kim, Ka-Hee (Graduate School of Information Management Engineering, Korea University)
  • 김가희 (고려대학교 정보경영공학전문대학원)
  • Received : 2010.11.03
  • Accepted : 2010.12.17
  • Published : 2010.12.31
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Abstract

Electronic book(E-book) is a digitalized content which provides online service and digitalized text-based information that has been distributed in the form of Paper-book. E-book has been attracting people's attention in earnest since the Steven King's novel, 'Riding the Bullet' was published as a form of E-book in 2000. Since then, customers have paid attention to E-book, and the scale of E-book market has been growing sharply in Europe, China, Japan and Korea as well as the US. The purpose of this study is for actual analysis how Paper-book and E-book market compete with each other and expand into the world publication market. The relationship between Paper-book and E-book is modeled by the Lotka-Volterra Model designed for competitive relationships and estimate spreading curves. Also, competition patterns between Paper-book and E-book are analyzed by estimating coefficient of curve expression. This study shows the change of customers' demand which has been created since E-book was introduced to the publication market.

Electronic book(E-book)은 기존의 Paper-book이라는 매체를 통해 유통되던 텍스트 기반의 정보를 디지털화하여 온라인으로 유통시키는 디지털 콘텐츠 서비스이다. E-book이 본격적으로 관심을 끌게 된 것은 2000년 스티븐 킹(Steven King)이 총알 타기(Riding the bullet) 라는 소설을 E-book으로 출판한 것에서 비롯되는데, 이후 E-book에 대한 구매자의 관심이 매우 증폭되었고 미국을 비롯하여 유럽, 중국, 일본, 한국 등에서 E-book시장의 규모가 매우 커지고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 세계 출판시장에서 E-book이 도입된 이후 Paper-book 출판시장과 E-book 출판시장이 어떻게 경쟁하며 확산해 나갈 것인가에 대한 실증 분석을 하는 것이다. 이를 위하여 두 시장 간의 관계를 경쟁관계를 고려한 확산모형인 Lotka-Volterra 모형을 사용하여 모형화하고, 국가별로 연도별 자료를 이용하여 확산곡선을 추정한다. 또한 곡선식의 계수를 추정함으로써, 두 시장 간의 경쟁관계 유형을 분석한다. 본 연구를 통해 Paper-book만 존재하던 출판 시장에 E-book이 도입됨으로써 책을 구매하는 구매자들의 수요 변화에 대한 분석을 시도한다.

Keywords

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