Developing an R&D CER Using Historical Defense Weapon System Data in Korea

한국 무기체계 개발 실적을 고려한 연구개발 비용추정관계식 개발

  • Eo, Won-Jae (Department of Operations Research, Korea National Defense University) ;
  • Lee, Yong-Bok (Department of Operations Research, Korea National Defense University) ;
  • Kang, Sung-Jin (Department of Operations Research, Korea National Defense University)
  • 어원재 (국방대학교 운영분석학과) ;
  • 이용복 (국방대학교 운영분석학과) ;
  • 강성진 (국방대학교 운영분석학과)
  • Received : 2010.05.09
  • Accepted : 2010.09.10
  • Published : 2010.09.30

Abstract

Currently, cost estimation is very important to the government acquisition programs to support decisions about funding and to evaluate resource requirement as key decision points. Parametric cost estimating models have been used extensively to obtain appropriate cost estimates in early acquisition phase. However, they have many restrictions to ensure the cost estimating result in Korean defense environment because they are developed in the U.S.A. environment. In order to obtain a good R&D cost estimate, developing our own CERs (Cost Estimation Relationships) using historical R&D data is essential. Nevertheless, there has been little research to develop our own CERs. In this research, we established a CER development process and found some cost drivers in the historical movement weapon system R&D data. The R&D CER is developed using the PCR(Principle Component Regression) method to remove multicollinearity among data and to overcome the restriction of the insufficient number of sample. At least, this research is meaningful as a first attempt in terms of defining the CER development process and obtaining our own R&D CER based on the historical data in Korean weapon system R&D environment.

Keywords

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