Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Development Model for Estimating Critical Path Probability of Element Path in PERT

PERT 요소공정의 주경로 확률 산정 모델 개발

  • 윤득노 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부 대학원) ;
  • 김태곤 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부 대학원) ;
  • 한이철 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부 대학원) ;
  • 이정재 (서울대학교 조경.지역시스템공학부, 서울대학교 농업생명과학연구원)
  • Received : 2010.01.15
  • Accepted : 2010.03.09
  • Published : 2010.03.31
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Abstract

The PERT is one form of probabilistic network and can have many critical paths in the concept of each work has dispersed complete time. Here we propose two operators to estimate the probabilistic complete time about serial and parallel connections, and in each junction node, probability of critical path is estimated by new operator. Then we compare the estimated results with robability of critical path with deterministic CPM and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Our results show that all paths in PERT can be critical path, and proposed operators are efficient and accurate probabilistic calculators compare MCS result.

Keywords

References

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