Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society

The Korean Data and Information Science Society (한국데이터정보과학회)
권호 표지

Test for substitution in telecommunication market system

통화시장체계의 대체성 검정

  • Kim, Tae-Ho (Department of Information Statistics, Chungbuk National University)
  • Received : 2010.12.27
  • Accepted : 2011.01.20
  • Published : 2011.01.31
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Abstract

After the launch of PCS in 1997, the mobile telephone industry has achieved a remarkable growth in market share and sales, and substituted for long-distance wire communication market. This study investigates the interrelationships between the two markets in transition and attempts to perform the statistical tests if the diffusion of mobile telephone was the direct factor for the reduction in sales of long-distance communication industry. The evidence of the direct substitution effect between the two markets is not likely to be found. Unlike the general expectations, the test result seems to prove the sustained initial complementary relation for awhile.

PCS 3사의 동시 서비스가 제공되면서 유무선 통화 수요는 초기의 보완관계에서 대체관계로 전환되었고, 이후 유선 시외전화 시장은 이동전화에 의해 잠식되어 매출액이 매년 감소해 왔다. 본 연구에서는 통화시장의 변환기 동안 유선 시외전화 시장과 이동전화 시장 간 상호 역학관계를 분석하고, 이동통화의 확산이 과연 시외통화 매출 감소의 직접적인 요인이었나를 통계적으로 검정하였다. 검정결과는 이동전화 이용과 시외전화 매출 간 직접적 대체관계의 증거를 발견하기는 어려우며 일반적 인식과는 달리 초기의 보완관계가 상당기간 유지되었음을 입증해준다.

Keywords

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