Policy Impact Analysis of Road Transport Investment via System Dynamics Theory

혼잡해소를 위한 도로건설의 정책효과: 시스템 다이내믹스 이론의 적용

Congestion problems can be approached from the viewpoint of system dynamics theory. The relationship between road capacity and congestion can be explained by the 'relative control' archetype among four system archetypes suggested by Wolstenholme. There is a balancing feedback loop between road capacity and road congestion. However, there is another balancing loop between road congestion and car traffic volume, which keeps disrupting the equilibrium of the former loop. A system dynamics model, which is based on a partial adjustment model of induced traffic in the literature, is built to simulate three road building scenarios: 'Expanding investment', 'Balancing investment' and 'Frozen road investment' scenarios. The 'Expanding investment' scenario manages to drop congestion levels by 9% over 30 years, however, causing much higher emissions of $CO_2$ than other scenarios. The trade-off relationship between congestion levels and environmental costs must be taken into consideration for road investment policies.