Abstract
This paper shows the entire future market volume of the HTS power industry, one of main smart grid equipment, in the case of the final market penetration ratio reaching 100% in the domestic market (South Korea). In this paper, the market penetration ratio is determined using the judgment method, with the market penetration S-curve induced using the Delphi method and the Product Life Cycle from 2011 (supposed launching year, not realistic physical year), to 2050 (expected final target year). This paper analyzes the HTS market penetration ratio of each stage, apparent innovation, early adapters, and the early/late majority and laggard stage, using the S-curve, thus calculating the total future market volume of HTS equipment in the positive sense. Finally, this paper estimates the quantitative analysis results for the HTS4-items (cable, FCL, transformer, rotation machine) of each year within the domestic market.
