대한환경공학회지 (Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers)

  • 제33권7호
  • /
  • Pages.544-551
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  • 2011
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  • 1225-5025(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2383-7810(eISSN)
대한환경공학회 (Korean Society of Environmental Engineers)
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확률적 정량모델을 이용한 토양에서의 바이러스 저감 평가

Assessment of Viral Attenuation in Soil Using Probabilistic Quantitative Model

  • 박정안 (서울대학교 환경바이오콜로이드공학연구실) ;
  • 김재현 (서울대학교 환경바이오콜로이드공학연구실) ;
  • 이인 (서울대학교 환경바이오콜로이드공학연구실) ;
  • 김성배 (서울대학교 지역시스템공학과.농업생명과학연구원)
  • Park, Jeong-Ann (Environmental Biocolloid Engineering Laboratory, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Jae-Hyun (Environmental Biocolloid Engineering Laboratory, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, In (Environmental Biocolloid Engineering Laboratory, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Song-Bae (Department of Rural Systems Engineering.Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University)
  • 투고 : 2011.05.31
  • 심사 : 2011.07.26
  • 발행 : 2011.07.29
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초록

본 연구의 목적은 미국 환경보호청에서 개발한 확률적 정량모델인 VIRULO 모델의 구성과 특성을 분석하는 것이다. 이 모델은 몬테카를로 방법을 이용하여 수리지질학적 차단벽으로써 토양의 바이러스 저감능을 평가할 수 있는 모델이다. 모델에 사용된 지배방정식은 크게 불포화 지역에서의 물의 흐름식과 바이러스의 이동식으로 구성되어 있다. 사용되는 파라미터들 중, 물의 흐름과 관련된 파라미터는 11종류의 토양에 대하여 UNSODA 데이터베이스로부터 얻어진 것 들이며, 바이러스와 관련된 파라미터 값들은 다섯 종류의 바이러스에 대하여 문헌조사를 통해 정리된 것이다. 모델은 목표로 하는 바이러스 저감 역치값과 특정 조건에서 몬테카를로 모사를 통해 얻어진 토양의 바이러스 저감인자를 비교하여, 목표로 하는 바이러스 저감 역치값에 도달하지 못하는 확률을 결정한다. 그리고, 몬테카를로 모사횟수와 목표 역치값에 도달하지 못한 횟수를 결과물로 제시한다. 11개의 USDA 토양을 대상으로 바이러스 저감을 평가한 결과, 양질사토와 모래의 바이러스 저감능이 점토나 미사 계열의 토양에 비하여 상당히 떨어지는 것으로 평가되었다. 5종의 바이러스를 대상으로 저감을 비교한 결과, 바이러스 간에 저감 정도에 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났으며, 그 중 폴리오바이러스의 저감 정도가 가장 큰 것으로 분석되었다. 그리고, 토양 함수량이 증가함에 따라 토양의 바이러스 저감능이 급격하게 감소하였으며, 토양의 깊이가 증가함에 따라 바이러스 저감능이 비선형적으로 증가하였다. 본 연구에 의하면, VIRULO 모델은 지중환경에서의 바이러스 위해성 평가에 사용될 수 있는 유용한 스크리닝 도구로 판단된다.

The objective of this study was to analyze VIRULO model, a probabilistic quantitative model, which had been developed by US Environmental Protection Agency. The model could assess the viral attenuation capacity of soil as hydrogeologic barrier using Monte Carlo simulation. The governing equations used in the model were composed of unsaturated flow equations and viral transport equations. Among the model parameters, those related to water flow for 11 soil types were from UNDODA data, and those related to 5 virus species were from the literatures. The model compared the attenuation factor with threshold of attenuation to determine the probability of failure and presented the exceedances and Monte Carlo runs as output. The analysis indicated that among 11 USDA soil types, the viral attenuation capacity of loamy sand and sand were far lower than those of clay and silt soils. Also, there were differences in the attenuation in soil among 5 viruses with poliovirus showing the highest attenuation. The viral attenuation capacity of soil decreased sharply with increasing soil water content and increased nonlinearly with increasing soil barrier length. This study indicates that VIRULO model could be considered as a useful screening tool for viral risk assessment in subsurface environment.

키워드

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