Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety (해양환경안전학회지)

The Korean Society of Marine Environment and safety (해양환경안전학회)
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Scenario Analysis of Dioxins Behaviors In Ulsan Bay of Korea using EMT-3D Model

EMT-3D 모델을 이용한 울산만 Dioxins 거동에 관한 시나리오 분석

  • Kim, Dong-Myung (Department of Ecological Engineering, Pukyong National University)
  • Received : 2011.02.17
  • Accepted : 2011.06.23
  • Published : 2011.06.30
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Abstract

A three dimensional ecological model(EMT-3D) was applied to Ulsan Bay for the simulation of Dioxins. The simulated results of dissolved Dioxins were in agreement with the observed values, with a correlation coefficient(R) of 0.7951 and a coefficient of determination($R^2$) of 0.6265. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that partition rate, adsorption rate and bioconcentration factor were important factors. Therefore, the parameters must be carefully considered in the modeling. In the case of 50% and 80% total loads reduction, concentration of dissolved Dioxins was shown to be lower than 0.150 and 0.250 pg WHD-TEQ/L, respectively.

EMT-3D 모델을 사용하여 내분비계 장애물질인 Dioxins를 대상으로 울산만 에서의 적용성을 검토하였으며 민감도 분석 및 오염부하에 대한 해역의 응답성 분석을 수행하여 영향인자를 판별하고 대안에 따른 영향을 평가하였다. 대상해역의 실측치와 모델의 계산치를 비교한 결과 상관계수(R)값은 0.7951, 결정계수($R^2$) 값은 0.6265로 나타나 계산치가 비교적 잘 재현된 것으로 사료된다. 민감도 분석을 실행한 결과 수층의 용존 Dioxins와 입자성 유기물질내 Dioxins의 경우 분배계수와 침강속도의 순으로 영향이 큰 것으로 나타났으며, 식물플랑크톤 체내 Dioxins의 경우 생물농축계수의 증감에 따른 농도변화가 가장 큰 것으로 나타나 이들 계수에 대한 정밀한 고찰이 필요할 것으로 사료된다. 하천 및 대기로부터 유입되는 오염부하 저감에 따른 해역의 용존 Dioxins 및 입자성 유기물질내 Dioxins의 응답성을 평가하였다.

Keywords

References

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