A Study on the Forecasting Model of the Required Cost for the Long-term Repair Plan in Apartment housings

공동주택의 장기수선계획 소요비용 예측모델 연구

Building deterioration would be proceeded by various causes such as physical, social, economic degradation. The deterioration would be inevitably prevented or delayed to get the decent function and performance in various building part and components. The maintenance and management are continued to provide the decent living condition for the household. The maintenance means mainly a repair, including the on-time and longterm plan. The longterm repair would be conducted by the systemic preparation in management activity and a required cost. Therefore, the annual due for the longterm repair plan is important to prepare the repair cost in a required time. In this paper, it aimed at analyzing the longterm repair cost and modelling to forecast the required cost in total area, number of household and time elapse in apartment housing. The estimation model of a repair cost is used with a power function which has a good statistics. Results of this study are shown that the sample has a longterm repair due in a $2,032won/m^2{\cdot}yr$ averagely which is higher than $912won/m^2{\cdot}yr$ in domestic. Second, the longterm repair due is proportionally correlated with the time elapse in both a total area and the number of household. Third, the estimation model for the longterm repair amount is suitable for the power function which is most in any other estimation models. Fourth, the ration of the longterm plan repair due a year to the cumulated longterm amount is about 26%.