System Dynamics Approaches on Green Car Diffusion Strategies and the Causal Diagram Analysis

친환경차 확산전략에 대한 시스템다이내믹스 접근과 인과지도 분석

The research is to identify important diffusion factors and their effects on green car diffusion process using system dynamics perspectives and a causal-loop analysis. Through a deep review on previous research, we have found the important factors of green car diffusion process. Price, driving range, network effect, recharge system, fuel cost had important facilitation on consumer attraction and green car diffusion. Based on the review, we have constructed a causal loop diagram explaining hybrid car diffusion process. We have found 3 important reinforcing loops in the causal loop diagram. Loop for learning & economies of scale(supply side), loop for network effect(consumer side), and loop for battery development(technology side) had most significant roles in the whole diffusion process. Through a deliberate analysis on the 3 causal loops, we have found meaningful results. First, there seems to exist a critical mass in the diffusion. Second, of the 3 loops, the battery technology had most significant role. Third, not consumer installed base but sales must be a standard to decide whether the critical mass is achieved or not. Based on these findings, several meaningful implications are suggested for the government and corporations related to the green car industries.