The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers (전기학회논문지)

The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers (대한전기학회)
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Short-Term Load Forecast for Near Consecutive Holidays Having The Mixed Load Profile Characteristics of Weekdays and Weekends

평일과 주말의 특성이 결합된 연휴전 평일에 대한 단기 전력수요예측

  • Park, Jeong-Do (Division of Energy & Electrical Engineering, Uiduk University) ;
  • Song, Kyung-Bin (School of Electrical Engineering, Soongsil University) ;
  • Lim, Hyeong-Woo (Graduate School, Department of Information & Electronics Engineering, Uiduk University) ;
  • Park, Hae-Soo (Demand Forecasting Center, KPX(Korea Power Exchange))
  • 박정도 (위덕대학교 에너지전기공학부) ;
  • 송경빈 (숭실대학교 전기공학부) ;
  • 임형우 (위덕대학교 일반대학원 정보전자공학과) ;
  • 박해수 (전력거래소 전력수요예측업무 담당)
  • Received : 2012.07.14
  • Accepted : 2012.11.28
  • Published : 2012.12.01
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Abstract

The accuracy of load forecast is very important from the viewpoint of economical power system operation. In general, the weekdays' load demand pattern has the continuous time series characteristics. Therefore, the conventional methods expose stable performance for weekdays. In case of special days or weekends, the load demand pattern has the discontinuous time series characteristics, so forecasting error is relatively high. Especially, weekdays near the thanksgiving day and lunar new year's day have the mixed load profile characteristics of both weekdays and weekends. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast these days by using the existing algorithms. In this study, a new load forecasting method is proposed in order to enhance the accuracy of the forecast result considering the characteristics of weekdays and weekends. The proposed method was tested with these days during last decades, which shows that the suggested method considerably improves the accuracy of the load forecast results.

Keywords

References

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