KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Activity-based Approaches for Travel Demand Modeling: Reviews on Developments and Implementations

교통수요 예측을 위한 활동기반 접근 방법: 경향과 적용현황 고찰

  • Lim, Kwang-Kyun ;
  • Kim, Sigon (Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Graduate school of Railroad) ;
  • Chung, SungBong (Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Graduate school of Railroad)
  • 임광균 (플로리다대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 김시곤 (서울과학기술대학교 철도대학원) ;
  • 정성봉 (서울과학기술대학교 철도대학원)
  • Received : 2012.12.05
  • Accepted : 2012.12.17
  • Published : 2013.03.30
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Abstract

Four-step travel-demand modeling based on a trip-level has been widely used over many decades. However, there has been a wide variance between forecasted- and real-travel demands, which leads less reliable on the model implications. A primary reason is that person's real travel behavior is not properly captured throughout the model developments. An activity-based modeling (ABM) approach was proposed and developed toward increasing the accuracy and reality of person's travel behavior in the U.S. since 1990', and stands as a good alternative to replace the existing trip-based approach. The paper contributes to the understanding of how the ABM approaches are dissimilar to the trip-based modeling approach in terms of estimation units, estimation process, their pros and cons and etc. We examined three activity-based travel demand model systems (DaySim, CT-Ramp, and CEMDAP) that are most commonly applied by many MPOs (Metropolitan Planning Organization). We found that the ABM approach can effectively explain multi-dimensional travel decision-makings and be expected to increase the predictive accuracy. Overall, the ABM approach can be a good substitute for the existing travel-demand methods having unreliable forecasts.

교통수요 예측 모델에서 통행을 기본 단위로 사용하는 4-단계 통행기반 모형은 오랜 시간동안 광범위하게 사용되어 왔으나, 최근 교통수요예측의 결과가 차량 개통 후 실제 교통량과 차이가 크게 발생되어, 예측 결과에 대한 불신이 증가되고 있다. 이러한 교통량 예측의 차이는 인간의 자연스러운 통행활동을 모형 개발 단계에서 고려하지 않기 때문이다. 그러나 미국에서는 교통수요예측의 정확성과 현실성을 높이기 위해 활동기반 모형을 1990년대 부터 활발하게 연구 및 개발하여 점진적으로 기존 4-단계 통행기반 모형을 대체하고 있는 상황이다. 본 논문은 통행기반 모형과 활동기반 모형을 분석단위, 분석절차, 문제점 등을 상호 비교 검토하는데 목적을 두었다. 기존의 교통수요예측 방법론의 문제점을 진단하기 위해, 미국을 중심으로 대표적인 세 가지 활동기반 모형 시스템(DaySim, CT-Ramp, CEMDAP)을 사용하였다. 통행기반 모형은 인간의 다차원적인 통행의사 결정 과정을 효율적으로 쉽게 설명할 수 있으며, 이는 교통수요 예측의 정확성을 한층 더 높일 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 따라서, 우리나라도 수요예측의 현실성과 정확도를 높이기 위해 인간의 활동을 기반으로 보완, 개선된 수요예측방법론이 검토되어야 한다.

Keywords

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