Abstract
Objectives : This study was conducted to estimate the future demand and supply of physicians for korean medicine from 2016 year to 2026 year in order to make an adequate manpower policy in a way of keeping a balance between demand and supply. Methods : Baseline projection method and trend analysis(a polynomial log power equation model) were used in the estimation of future supply and demand respectively. We used data about the amount of oriental doctors from Ministry of Health and Welfare Statistics Yearbook and the treatment days from HIRA Statistics Yearbook. Results : It was projected that the total number of physician of Korean medicine will be 25,178 registered and 18,967 available in clinical setting. According to polynomial equation model which explained the trend of demand and had the highest score of $R^2$ among the equation models, 3,800~5,600 physician in Korean medicine will be oversupplied in 2016 year, 9,000~10,700 physicians in 2021 year and 15,700~17,000 persons in 2026 year depends on annual working days which is 265days, 255days or 239days. Log equation model also showed that overall excess supply of physician manpower in Korean medicine. Conclusions : Alternative manpower policies for Korean medicine doctors should be implemented in a way of both dwindling supplies and growing demand in Korean medical service in terms of Korean medical services utilization and improving physician's productivity.
