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Optimal Sampling Method of Censored Data for Optimizing Preventive Maintenance

예방정비 최적화를 위한 중도절단 자료의 최적 샘플링 방안

  • Lee, In-Hyun (Department of Control and Instrumentation Engineering, Kwangwoon University) ;
  • Oh, Sea-Hwa (Department of Control and Instrumentation Engineering, Kwangwoon University) ;
  • Li, Chang-Long (Department of Control and Instrumentation Engineering, Kwangwoon University) ;
  • Yang, Dong-In (Department of Control and Instrumentation Engineering, Kwangwoon University) ;
  • Lee, Key-Seo (Department of Control and Instrumentation Engineering, Kwangwoon University)
  • Received : 2013.02.20
  • Accepted : 2013.05.07
  • Published : 2013.06.30

Abstract

As there is no failure data for the entire lifecycle of a product, when analyzing reliability measures based on early failure data only, there may be a significant error between the estimated mean life and the real one, because it can be underestimated, or on the other hand, it can be overestimated when analyzing reliability measures based on a large amount of censored data with the failure data. To resolve the issue, this study proposes an optimal sampling estimation procedure that selects the proportion of censored data to estimate the optimal distribution with the idea that the estimated distribution could be approximated as closely as the real life distribution. This would work if we sampled the optimal proportion on the censored data, because failure data has real intrinsic distribution in any situation. We validate the proposed procedure using an actual example. If the proposed method is applied to the maintenance policy of TWC (Train to Wayside Communication) system, then we can establish the optimal maintenance policy. Thus, we expect that it will be effective for improvement of reliability and cost savings.

어떤 제품의 수명주기 전체에 대한 고장 자료가 없을 때 초기 고장 자료만을 이용하여 신뢰성 척도를 분석할 경우에는 과소추정이 될 수 있고, 많은 수의 중도절단 자료를 고장 자료와 함께 활용할 경우에는 과대추정이 되어 실제 수명과 상당한 오차가 존재할 수 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위한 방법으로 고장자료는 실제 고유의 수명 분포를 갖고 있으므로 중도절단 자료의 비율을 최적으로 표본을 뽑을 경우 추정된 분포와 실제 수명 분포가 근접해질 수 있다는 아이디어로 최적의 분포를 추정하기 위한 중도절단 비율을 선택하는 최적 샘플링 추정 절차에 대해 제안하였고, 실제 사례로 검증하였다. 향후 이 논문에서 제시한 방법을 TWC의 정비 정책에 적용하면 최적의 정비 정책을 수립할 수 있으므로 신뢰성 향상이나 비용 절감 등의 효과를 기대할 수 있을 것으로 예상한다.

Keywords

References

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