The Journal of the Korea Contents Association (한국콘텐츠학회논문지)

The Korea Contents Association (한국콘텐츠학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Enhancing the Satisfaction Value of User Group Using Meteorological Forecast Information: Focused on the Precipitation Forecast

기상예보 정보 사용자 그룹의 만족가치 제고 방안: 강수예보를 중심으로

  • 김인겸 (국립기상연구소 정책연구과) ;
  • 정지훈 (국립기상연구소 정책연구과) ;
  • 김정윤 (국립기상연구소 정책연구과) ;
  • 신진호 (국립기상연구소 정책연구과) ;
  • 김백조 (국립기상연구소 정책연구과) ;
  • 이기광 (단국대학교 경영학과)
  • Received : 2013.07.30
  • Accepted : 2013.08.22
  • Published : 2013.11.28
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The providers of meteorological information want to know the level of satisfaction of forecast users with their services. To provide better service, meteorological communities of each nation are administering a survey on satisfaction of forecast users. However, most researchers provided these users with simple questionnaires and the respondents had to choose one answer among different satisfaction levels. So, the results of this kind of survey have low explanation power and are difficult to use in developing strategy of forecast service. In this study, instead of cost-loss concept, we applied satisfaction-dissatisfaction concept to the $2{\times}2$ contingency table, which is a useful tool to evaluate value of forecast, and estimated satisfaction value of 24h precipitation forecasts in Shanghai, China and Seoul, Korea. Moreover, not only the individual satisfaction value of forecast but the user group's satisfaction value was evaluated. As for the result, it is effective to enhance forecast accuracy to improve the satisfaction value of deterministic forecast user group, but in the case of probabilistic forecast, it is important to know the level of dissatisfaction of user group and distribution of probability threshold of forecast users. These results can help meteorological communities to search for a solution which can provide better satisfaction value to forecast users.

기상정보 제공자들은 예보사용자들이 제공되는 예보서비스에 얼마나 만족하고 있는지를 알고 싶어 한다. 더 나은 예보서비스 제공을 위해서 각국의 기상 커뮤니티들은 사용자들의 만족도에 관한 다양한 설문조사를 진행하고 있다. 하지만 대부분의 설문조사들이 단순하게 사용자들이 얼마나 서비스에 만족하는지를 질문하고 있기 때문에 설문 결과의 설명력이 떨어지고, 예보서비스의 전략수립에 활용되기 어렵다. 본 연구에서는 예보의 가치를 평가하는 유용한 도구인 $2{\times}2$ 검증테이블에 기존의 비용-손실이 아닌 만족-불만족 개념을 적용하여 상해와 서울에서 제공된 24시간 강수예보의 만족가치를 도출하였다. 그리고 예보에 대한 개인의 만족가치뿐만 아니라 예보 사용자 그룹의 만족가치를 평가하였다. 그 결과, 확정예보 사용자 그룹의 만족가치를 높이기 위해선 예보 정확도의 향상이 유용하지만, 확률예보의 경우엔 사용자 그룹의 불만족 정도와 예보확률의 사용 분포를 파악하는 것이 중요한 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 기상 커뮤니티들이 예보 사용자들에게 더 나은 만족가치를 제공할 수 있는 방안을 찾는데 도움을 줄 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

References

  1. 기상청, 2011년도 기상업무 대국민 만족도 조사, 2011.
  2. A. Silver and C. Conrad, "Public Perception of and response to severe weather warning in Nova Scotia, Canada," Meteorological Application, Vol.17, No.2, pp.173-179, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.198
  3. F. Zhang and R. Morss, "An in-person survey investigating public perceptions of and responses to hurricane Rita forecasts along the texas coast," Weather and Forecasting, Vol.22, No.6, pp.1177-1190, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007WAF2006118.1
  4. A. Murphy, S. Lichtenstein, B. Fischoff, and R. Winkler, "Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.61, No.7, pp.695-701, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1980)061<0695:MOPPF>2.0.CO;2
  5. G. Gigerenzer, R. Hertwig, E. Broek, B. Fasolo, and K. Katsikopoulos, "A 30% chance of rain tomorrow: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts?," Risk Analysis, Vol.25, No.3, pp.623-629, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00608.x
  6. S. Joslyn and R. Nichols, "Probability or frequency? Expressing forecast uncertainty in public weather forecasts," Meteorological Application, Vol.16, No.3, pp.309-314, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.121
  7. 이중우, 이기광, "레저산업의 고객관계관리 문제 에서 기상예보의 정보가치를 최대화시키는 의사결정전략 분석", 경영과학, 제27권, 제1호, pp.33-43, 2010.
  8. D. Wilks, "A skill score based on economic value for probability forecasts," Meteorological Application, Vol.8, No.2, pp.209-219, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482701002092
  9. 양승정, 이종태, "퍼지의사결정나무 개선방법을 이용한 CRM 적용 사례", 한국콘텐츠학회논문지, 제7권, 제8호, pp.13-20, 2007. https://doi.org/10.5392/JKCA.2007.7.8.013
  10. A. Murphy, "Decision-making models in the cost-loss ratio situation and measures of the value of probability forecasts," Monthly Weather Review, Vol.104, No.8, pp.1058-1065, 1976. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1976)104<1058:DMMITC>2.0.CO;2
  11. A. Murphy, "The value of climatological, categorical and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss situation," Monthly Weather Review, Vol.105, No.7, pp.803-816, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1977)105<0803:TVOCCA>2.0.CO;2
  12. D. Richardson, "Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system," Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol.126, No.563, pp.649-667, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712656313
  13. J. Thompson, "On the operational deficiencies in categorical weather forecasts," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.33, pp.223-226, 1952.
  14. J. Thompson and G. Brier, "The economic utility of weather forecasts," Monthly Weather Review, Vol.83, No.11, pp.249-254, 1955. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1955)083<0249:TEUOWF>2.0.CO;2
  15. J. Thornes and D. Stephenson, "How to judge the quality and value of weather forecast products," Meteorological Application, Vol.8, No.3, pp.307-314, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482701003061
  16. R. Katz and A. Murphy, Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts, Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press, 1997.
  17. T. Stewart, R. Pielke and R. Nath, "Understanding user decision making and the value of improved precipitation forecasts-lessons from a case study," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.85, No.2, pp.223-235, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-2-223
  18. A. Murphy, "Decision making and the value of forecasts in a generalized model of the cost-loss ratio situation," Monthly Weather Review, Vol.113, No.3, pp.362-369, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0362:DMATVO>2.0.CO;2
  19. R. Katz, "Dynamic cost-loss ratio decision-making model with an auto correlated climate variable," Journal of Climate, Vol.6, No.1, pp.151-160, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<0151:DCLRDM>2.0.CO;2
  20. K. Lee and J. Lee, "The economic value of weather forecasts for decision making problems in the profit/loss situation," Meteorological Application, Vol.14, No.4, pp.455-463, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.44
  21. K. Mylne, "Decision-making from probability forecasts based on forecast value," Meteorological Application, Vol.9, No.3, pp.307-315, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482702003043
  22. K. Lee and C. Han, "Optimal decision-making and the value of weather forecasts information: a case of CRM in a Korean resort," In 2007 Conference on Convergence Information Technology, Kyungju, Korea, 2007.
  23. R. Morss, J. Lazo, and J. Demuth, "Examining the use of weather forecasts in decision scenarios: results from a US survey with implications for uncertainty communication," Meteorological Application, Vol.17, No.2, pp.149-162, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.196